At the closing conference of the European Union-funded “Climate-Ready İzmir: Enhancing Resilience Strategies (CRIZ-ERS)” project, carried out by the Directorate of Climate Change and Clean Energy with İzmir Metropolitan Municipality among its shareholders, the results of comprehensive analyses on the city’s climate future were presented. The studies showed that temperatures could rise by up to 4 to 5 degrees Celsius, extreme rainfall could increase up to 40 percent, heatwaves could last for as long as 90 days, and sea levels could rise by up to 1.7 meters in the worst-case scenario.
The CRIZ-ERS Project Closing Conference, held at İzQ Innovation Center, addressed climate change, disaster risks, urban resilience and climate governance. As part of the 2-year-long project, İzmir’s climate risks were analyzed at both provincial and district levels, while adaptation and resilience strategies to address those risks were also evaluated.
Velibeyoğlu: Community Is at the Heart of the Solution
Speaking at the opening of the conference, Prof. Dr. Koray Velibeyoğlu, President of İzmir Planning Agency, said that the climate crisis cannot be solved through technical investments alone and that changes in social behavior and a culture of collective action are at least as important as infrastructure investments. Stating that climate change has become a multidimensional crisis, Velibeyoğlu said: “International targets are important, but local solutions and local partnerships are also decisive. There is a need for stronger cooperation mechanisms among civil society organizations, local governments, universities and the private sector. Small-scale successful projects often fail to grow
and turn into lasting policies. The Citizens’ Assemblies initiative in İzmir first started on a limited scale. Today, it has expanded to all 30 districts. Issues such as water, food, energy, culture and health are addressed directly with citizens. The most important concept to emerge from these efforts is ‘community’. Resilience against the climate crisis will only be possible through strong communities and a culture of collective action.”
İzmir Among Europe’s Leading Climate Cities
Berkay Yılmaz, Climate Governance Specialist at İzmir Planning Agency, spoke about the work being carried out under the European Union’s Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities Mission. He stated, “The European Union aims to establish 112 pioneering cities by 2030. İzmir is one of the cities selected from among 370 candidates. As one of the 12 cities chosen from non-EU countries, İzmir represents Türkiye together with Istanbul. In addition to being an agricultural, tourism, industrial and port city at the same time, İzmir also stands out thanks to its high renewable energy potential.”
Yılmaz also noted that efforts are being made to localize the European Union’s mission-oriented approach. He said that, through the urban policy briefs that have been prepared, 10 key challenges facing İzmir have been identified. Referring to these as “İzmir’s 10 Missions,” Yılmaz stated that all work carried out within İzmir Mission Laboratory (M-Lab) has been shaped in line with these priorities.
Yılmaz added that İzmir Mission Action and Implementation Platform (EMRAP) will serve as the coordination center for the city’s climate transition. “Institutions participating in the platform will prepare roadmaps aligned with climate goals within their respective areas of activity. These efforts will also be integrated into their strategic plans. Under the European Union’s new approach, responsibility is not assigned solely to municipalities. The entire urban ecosystem is included in the process.”
Conducted in Three Phases
Sharing the project’s outcomes, Dr. Çağlar Tükel explained that the “Climate-Ready İzmir: Enhancing Resilience Strategies” project was completed in three phases. Tükel said that the first phase focused on assessing climate hazards and risks across İzmir. In the second phase, the work was narrowed down to the district of Konak, while the third phase examined adaptation and resilience measures that could be developed in response to the identified risks. He noted that heatwaves, agricultural drought, floods, sea-level rise and forest fires were examined across İzmir, while in Konak district, heatwaves, floods and sea-level rise were identified as priority risk areas.
Tükel stated that much more comprehensive datasets were used in the studies compared with previous years and detailed spatial risk analyses were carried out across İzmir and within Konak district. He added that the findings would help guide the prioritization of future investments and adaptation efforts.
Temperatures Could Rise by Up to 5 Degrees
Presenting on climate hazards and related risks, Dr. Çağrı Hasan Karaman said that global climate models had been used to analyse the climate risks İzmir may face in the future. Karaman stated that temperatures could rise by up to 2 to 3 degrees Celsius under optimistic scenarios and to 4 to 5 degrees under pessimistic ones, adding that the effects of the global climate crisis are already being felt in everyday life.
Karaman noted that while total precipitation is expected to decrease, rainfall events will become more intense and occur over shorter periods. As a result, İzmir is expected to have a drier climate in the future, while experiencing extreme rainfall more frequently. Pointing out that one of the most significant impacts of climate change is heatwaves, Karaman said that analyses evaluating daytime and nighttime temperatures together had produced notable findings. According to climate models, the duration of future heatwaves could range from 20 to 60 days, while in some scenarios they could last for as long as 90 days. He also stressed that prolonged heatwaves could pose serious health risks, particularly for older adults, children and individuals with chronic illnesses.
Sea Levels Could Rise by Up to 1.7 Meters
Karaman also noted that analyses on sea-level rise and coastal flooding were carried out as part of the project, using approximately 25 years of data obtained from tide gauge stations in the Gulf of İzmir. According to the analyses based on historical data, an extreme event with a 100-year return period could result in a storm surge of approximately 70 centimeters. Karaman stated that sea-level rise caused by climate change would add to this impact. He noted that sea levels could rise by up to around 60 centimeters under optimistic scenarios and approximately 80 centimeters under pessimistic ones. In the worst-case scenario, where storm surge and sea-level rise are considered together, water levels could rise by up to approximately 1.7 meters by the end of the century.
Adaptation Policies against Climate Risks Discussed
In the second part of the conference, experts addressed different dimensions of climate change. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Meltem Şenol Balaban evaluated the analysis of climate risks and adaptation measures from a disaster risk management perspective, while Assoc. Prof. Dr. Selda Tuncer drew attention to the socioeconomic impacts of the climate crisis. Dr. Banu Gökmen assessed how cultural heritage sites could be affected by climate change, while Prof. Dr. Osman Balaban emphasized that the importance of local climate action in Türkiye will increase further following the adoption of the Climate Law.
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